Summary of "The Real Reason the Pentagon Approved Venezuela: Critical Minerals and Adversary Expulsion"

As I was trying to make sense of what just happened and what the current administration and media won’t talk about, I found the article helpful.  I subscribe to her Substack as she provides incredible commentary on commodities and geopolitics I find very useful in framing things beyond the left/right politics U.S. news is consumed in.  Her latest post I am summarizing today is free if you wish to read the whole thing.  Just click the link below and you should get to the article she posted as it’s not behind her paywall.  If you just want my quicker, 700-word summary, keep reading.

In summary, while we ostensibly captured Maduro based on “legitimate” outstanding U.S. drug charges from 2020, the real reason for the military operation was oil, rare earth metals, and getting rid of a Western Hemisphere base of operations for China, Russia, and Iran.  The oil framing, while politically appealing to some (and disgusting to others), appears secondary given Venezuela's degraded production (around 700,000 barrels/day) and lack of global chokepoint control.

Key Strategic Imperatives Outlined in the Analysis:

1. Critical Minerals as a National Security Priority
   The U.S. is heavily import-dependent for minerals like tantalum (from coltan), cobalt, rare earth elements, antimony, and others—irreplaceable in weapons systems (e.g., missile guidance, jet engines, radar). China dominates 60-95% of global processing, including 91% of rare earths, and demonstrated supply chain weaponization with export restrictions in April 2025. The Pentagon allocated $7.5 billion for stockpiling these minerals, highlighting their elevation to the same priority as fuel or ammunition. Venezuela's Orinoco Mining Arc holds vast, documented deposits of these "blue gold" resources, but Chinese operators have gained operational control at extraction sites, often coordinating with local groups and state entities. Minerals are laundered through regional networks and routed to Chinese refineries, creating a chokepoint vulnerability for U.S. defense production.
2. ‍Convergence of Adversary Threats
   Venezuela uniquely hosted integrated operations from all three major U.S. adversaries:
   • China: Embedded control over mineral extraction feeding its processing monopoly.
   • Iran: Established drone manufacturing facilities (e.g., Mohajer-6 systems with range covering Florida) and Hezbollah networks for offensive capabilities in the Western Hemisphere.
   • Russia: Deployed over 120 advisers for comprehensive military training, air defense integration, and anti-access systems in the Caribbean.
     These mutually reinforcing presences (e.g., Russian radar supported by Chinese comms, protecting Iranian and Chinese assets) created an intolerable compounded threat close to U.S. territory.

One last point, much like the Cuban Missile Crisis, a missile launched from Venezuela gives the U.S. minimal time to react.  That calculus seems to be important as well.

3. Why Not Just Oil?
   Unlike Iraq's strategic oil imperatives in 2003, Venezuela's oil does not justify the risks today. Strikes notably spared PDVSA oil facilities, focusing on command centers, airbases, and ports. Timing aligned with mineral priorities and adversary entrenchment.

Pentagon Decision-Making Reality
The article emphasizes that major operations originate from military threat assessments, with civilian leadership providing authorization and public messaging. Here, the convergence exceeded risk thresholds, necessitating action to deny adversaries leverage over irreplaceable resources and remove their hemispheric footholds—analogous to securing 20th-century oil flows but updated for 21st-century warfare.

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Potential Implications for Investors
I’m still figuring that out.  This operation could open Venezuela to Western investment in oil and minerals, reducing Chinese dominance and enhancing supply chain resilience. However, geopolitical risks remain high amid international condemnation and uncertainty over transition.

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Please note this is one analyst's view and should not be taken as predictive. The official rationale centers on narcotics and governance, with oil revival explicitly mentioned by the administration.

Source: Renegade Resources

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